Labor and Albanians win in post-Budget Newspoll, but other polls don’t look so rosy

A national Newspoll, conducted after the budget on 14 May from a sample of more than 1,200 people, gave Labor a 52% to 48% lead over the Coalition, a one point gain for the Labor Party since the Previous Newspoll four weeks ago.

The primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one point), 34% Labor (up one point), 13% Greens (up one point), 7% One Nation (constant) and 9% for all others (down one point). .

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped six points to net zero, with 47% (up three points from four weeks ago) satisfied with his performance and 47% (down three points) dissatisfied.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved three points to -12. Albanese’s lead as best prime minister over Dutton widened to 52-33%, from 48-35% previously.

The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term, with a smoothed data line. This is the first time Albanese’s net approval has not been negative since before the Voice to Parliament referendum last October.

While Newspoll shows an improvement for Labor and Albanians, other Resolve and YouGov polls listed below are much less optimistic. On average, the Labor Party remains slightly ahead.

After each budget, Newspoll also asks three questions:

• Whether the budget was good or bad for the economy

• whether it was good or bad for you personally

• if the opposition would have presented a better budget.

This budget scored a net zero for economic impact and a net -2 for personal impact. Analyst Kevin Bonham said it’s relatively poor on the economy, but relatively good on the personal impact, and that the two measures are closer than ever.

Voters between 43% and 37% thought the Coalition would not have presented a better budget, compared to 49% who believed it would do so last year.

Work continues to fall in Resolve survey

A Resolve national poll for Nine Newspapers, presumably conducted after the budget from a sample of more than 1,600 people, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary votes (steady since April), Labor 29% (down one), the Greens 12% (minus one), One Nation 7% (two more), UAP 2% (constant), independents 12% (one more) and others 2% (one less).

Resolve does not usually publish a bipartisan estimate, but applying 2022 electoral preference flows gives Labor a lead of between 51% and 49% over the Coalition, a one-point gain for the Coalition since April. This is Labor’s worst result in Resolve, which was easily the most favorable pollster for Labor in 2023.

After gaining nine points in the April poll, Albanese’s net approval fell eight points to -10 in this poll, with 49% giving him a bad rating and 39% giving him a good rating.

Dutton’s net approval fell one point to -3. Albanese overtook Dutton as preferred prime minister by 40%-32% (compared to 41%-32% in April).

The Liberals’ lead over Labor on economic management fell from 38 per cent to 27 per cent in April. In terms of keeping the cost of living down, the Liberals’ lead remained stable at six points.

Labor falls to draw in YouGov pre-budget poll

A national YouGov poll, conducted from May 10 to 14 from a sample of 1,506 people, showed the Labor Party and the Coalition tied 50-50. This was a two-point gain for the Coalition since the end of April.

The primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two points), 30% Labor (down three), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (steady) and 11% for everyone else (up one).

Albanese’s net approval fell one point to -12 since March, with 53% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied, while Dutton’s net approval rose five points to -6. Albanese beat Dutton 44% to 37% as best prime minister (compared to 46% to 34% in March).

As for the most important issue for the government, 36% said housing is affordable (up four points from November), 34% said standard of living (down three points) and 29% said health care. (two points less).

In another national YouGov poll conducted from April 19 to 23 from a sample of 1,514 people, 35% of respondents thought the Australian government should recognize Palestine as an independent state, 21% were opposed and 44 % was undecided.

Essential Pre-Budget Survey

In last fortnight’s Essential national poll, conducted from 1 to 5 May from a sample of 1,150 people, the Coalition led Labor by 47-46%, including undecided voters (compared to 49-47% in mid-April).

The primary votes were 34% Coalition (down one point), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (down two), 1% UAP (steady), 7% for everyone else (minus two) and 7% undecided (three more).

Excluding undecideds and applying 2022 preference flows to the primary votes, The Poll Bludger had a Labor lead of around 52.5% to 47.5%, compared to Essential’s Coalition lead of the 50.5% to 49.5% (excluding those undecided). The preferences assigned by Essential respondents have been very poor for the Labor Party.

Between 59% and 30%, voters thought the budget would not make a significant difference in the cost of living. Between 59% and 41% also thought it was better to focus on law enforcement than preventative measures to reduce crime. And between 70% and 30% of respondents backed the eSafety commissioner over tech billionaire Elon Musk in the discussion of dangerous content versus free speech.

80% of respondents supported age verification for pornography and gambling websites. When asked who they would trust most to verify their age, 43% said the government, 14% the companies whose services they access, 12% non-profit third parties, and 32% neither.

Morgan Surveys

In Morgan’s national poll conducted from 29 April to 5 May from a sample of 1,666 people, Labor led the Coalition by 52% to 48%, unchanged from the 22nd to 28th poll. of April.

In the Morgan poll conducted from May 6 to 12 from a sample of 1,654 people, Labor again led with 52-48%. The primary votes were 37% Coalition (constant from previous poll), 32% Labor (up two), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 7. 5% independent (one down) and 4.5% others (one down).

NT Freshwater poll: CLP leads 54-46

The Northern Territory election will be held on August 24. A Freshwater poll published by Sky News last Thursday gave the Country Liberal Party a 54% to 46% lead over the Labor government. This was a four point gain for the Labor Party since last December.

This survey was conducted for Australian Energy Producers NT based on a sample of 1,000 people. The primary votes were 39% CLP, 29% Labor, 9% Greens and 22% independents.

Tasmanian upper house election results

On May 6 I covered the May 4 Tasmanian election for three of the 15 upper house seats. At that time, there was no recount of two candidates, and only the primary votes were known.

In Labour-controlled Elwick, Glenorchy’s independent mayor Bec Thomas defeated Labor by 53.3% to 46.7%, based on primary votes of 33.9% for Thomas, the 28th, 4% of Labor, 19.0% of the Greens and 18.7% of a left-wing independent. Thomas slightly increased his lead after preferences.

In Liberal-controlled Prosser, the Liberals defeated Labor by 52.9% to 47.1%, based on primary votes of 38.5% Liberals, 28.8% Labor, 12.4% from Shooters and 20.4% combined from two independents.

In Hobart, previously held by an outgoing left-wing independent, the Greens defeated independent John Kelly by 59.7% to 40.3%, of the Greens’ 36.9% primary votes, 22 .3% for Kelly, 18.5% for Labor and 13.6% for another independent. This is the Greens’ first seat in the upper house.

The overall composition of the upper house is now four 15-seat Liberals, three Labour, one Green and seven independents. Bonham said three of the six existing independents are centre-right, one is center and two are left-wing. He hopes Thomas is a centrist. Thomas’ victory in Elwick will make the Liberals’ task of passing legislation in the upper house a little easier.